Nov 2023
Abstract
The desert climate of the Arabian Peninsula (AP), with its meager-yet-important rainfall and high temperatures, is critical to its 80-million population, environment, and economy. The already-high temperatures, and dust emissions and their incursions, are exacerbating. Tellingly, the AP climate has not received due attention. Understanding its variability, predicting it on subseasonal-to-seasonal scales, and generating reliable future climate-change projections are acutely needed. The distinct dust-filled desert environment topography and local vegetation are inadequately represented in current-generation climate models. Their coarse resolution does not resolve the local intense convection, aridity, and moisture-transport from the surrounding marginal Seas.
To meet these challenges, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has recently established the Climate Change Center (CCC), mandated to study, and predict the AP climate variability and change by developing multi-pronged models through multi-national collaborations. This talk will showcase the regional uncertainties in the CMIP6 climate projections, which show high spread in simulated rainfall and associated extremes over the AP, even for the historical period. Yet, local uncertainties are underestimated owing to inter-model duplication and similarities. Therefore, the CCC has embarked on developing AP-specific high-resolution regional climate models with proper representation of the local atmospheric and land processes and feedbacks, and eddy-resolving marginal Seas’ circulations. These, with regional subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting systems also being developed, will facilitate state-of-the-art regional seamless-prediction systems, and application products for drought, sea-level, science-based desert-greening opportunities, etc. This contribution will outline the CCC road map and strategies, offer an overview of its ongoing activities and latest scientific findings, and explore the wider implications for global climate research and policy.
Bio
Prof. Karumuri Ashok started his career as a member of the first Indian climate modelling group established at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)in 1994. He was subsequently a researcher at JAMSTEC, Japan during 2000-2007, where he carried out widely-cited research on tropical Indo-Pacific studies, including the discovery of the ENSO-Modoki phenomenon, basin wide warming of the pacific, impacts of ENSO and IOD on the Indian summer-monsoon and Australian winter-climates, seasonal prediction, etc. During 2007-2009, at the APEC Climate Center, Korea, he introduced the MME-based 6-month lead ENSO forecasts, and the concept of climate-filter MME. Back at IITM as the Duputy Director of the Climate Change Research Centre at the IITM during 2009-2014, Ashok successfully led the development of the first version of the Indian earth-system model by transforming a seasonal forecast model to a long-term climate model. He had also contributed to international climate change policy/science deliberations of UNFCCC and IPCC (AR5).
At the University of Hyderabad since 2014, Prof. Ashok has initiated past-climate simulation research in India. His research showcases that the ENSO-Monsoon relationship has always been robust throughout the Last Millennium, but was modulated by the centennial Walker-circulation changes. Simulations carried out by his group indicate a wet monsoon during mid-Holocene due to orbital changes, but no ENSO role. His paleo-simulation results provide usable climate analogue relationships/mechanisms that can be used to delineate the anthropogenic impacts on monsoons future climate simulations. Ashok also works on climate-prediction applications to crop-yield forecasting, extreme urban weather, etc.
Ashok is at KAUST since October 2022 as a Principal Research Scientist (R-6) at the newlyestablished Climate Change Center. He plays a lead role in climate change research , and supports the Director in coordinating the R & D and science management, and networking.