By David Murphy

Global warming and its effects on our climate have created an unprecedented challenge for the world. For decades to come, humanity's response to climate change will determine the very future of our species. In recent years, across the globe, heat waves, severe storms, intense flooding and droughts have become increasingly frequent due to climate change.

As is the case globally, climate change poses a severe risk to Saudi Arabia's environment, society and economy. It is projected that climate change will significantly affect the country's already arid, desert-type landscape, which, as it stands, experiences high temperatures and receives a limited amount of rainfall. 

However, along with its many challenges, climate change presents an opportunity for Saudi Arabia to shift toward a more sustainable development model. Through sustainable development, the region can maintain a resilient economy and preserve its natural and man-made resources. The Kingdom's path to its future goals will be determined by how it responds to the impacts of climate change on its society, economy, and natural and manufactured systems.

In September 2022, KAUST established the Climate Change Center (CCC) in partnership with Saudi Arabia's National Center for Meteorology (NCM) and the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (MEWA) to help counter the harmful effects of climate change in the region. The center also aims to support the Saudi Green Initiative, an international sustainability plan committed to developing clean energy resources, reducing carbon emissions and protecting the Kingdom's environment. 

"Regional Capabilities for Monitoring and Projecting Climate Change"

Last month, KAUST and the NCM hosted a two-day workshop sponsored by the CCC titled "Regional Capabilities for Monitoring and Projecting Climate Change."

The two-day workshop, held in Jeddah on January 18-19, 2023, introduced the CCC to leading climate authorities in the Arab world. The workshop brought together local and international climate change experts, scientists, researchers and educators to share research findings and explore opportunities for collaboration.

Invited speakers also discussed ongoing and planned research and development activities regarding the region's current climate and future variations. The workshop results will help the CCC develop research strategies to support climate research, technology and operations in the region.

A vision for change

Headed by KAUST Professor of Earth Sciences and Engineering Ibrahim Hoteit, the CCC has been established as the central authority for climate change science in Saudi Arabia and the surrounding region.

The CCC will link science, environmental standards and best practices, bringing together researchers, decision-makers, businesses, and communities in line with the country's sustainable development priorities. Center researchers will assess vulnerabilities and advise on adaptive measures relevant to human livelihood, health, safety and economic well-being.

By developing science-informed and accessible information support tools that aid effective climate change response strategies and resilient management practices, the CCC will help facilitate sound decision-making in the Kingdom and beyond. It will compile, produce and share research, data and information concerning climatology using advanced modeling, analysis and the prediction of climate variations. 

Utilizing KAUST and NCM's supercomputing facilities, the CCC will develop new climate models specifically designed for the Arabian Peninsula (AP) 's environment at uncharted resolutions that best represent the regional climate features. These models will produce data sets to help to understand regional climate variations and project their trends.

"The CCC will lead the development of climate information services nationally and regionally to mitigate the impact of climate phenomenon and contribute to sustainable development," said Hoteit. "The CCC team will deliver sound climate information and advise decision-makers to promote science-informed strategies and programs within the Kingdom and the region."

One of the core goals of the CCC is to strengthen networks, partnerships, know-how and capacity building for climate change science both in the Kingdom and regionally. In line with these objectives, ​​Hoteit plans to establish further connections with related centers worldwide; to date, the CCC has five collaborations with world-renowned institutions: the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, U.S.), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University (IRI, U.S.), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO, U.S.), the University of Arizona (UA, U.S.), and the University of Colorado (UC, U.S.).

Hoteit and his team plan to have the first versions of the next-generation AP climate models operational within 18 months. Over the next two years, the CCC team will further develop their advanced interactive online visualization and analysis platforms to provide real-time access to the large datasets the models will produce.

"I am committed to ensuring the center's objectives and deliverables are achieved, starting with its establishment, engaging top scientists for research and development, and fostering international collaborations," Hoteit noted.

"Our team will develop next-generation climate models to reduce the uncertainties in the climate projections over our region. They will develop the region's first sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting systems, establish the center as a regional hub for climate change science and information and build local capacity in climate sciences," he concluded.

Watch the video about CCC, courtesy of the VPR Office at KAUST.