Abstract

After ~90 years of exploration and production, companies in the Middle East has been successful in adding substantial oil and non-associated gas reserves. This success was due to sustained investment in exploration for conventional and unconventional plays, driven by a measured dose of optimism. This success would not be achievable without investment in geoscience training, and rapid adoption of effective technologies such as large 3D seismic surveys and horizontal wells. The Petroleum industry’s anticipation of new realities is evident from their support for research on carbon sequestration in sedimentary aquifers, carbon mineralization in mafic / ultramafic rocks, and natural hydrogen plays. In contrast, the growth of the mining industry has been limited by weak exploration effort during the past three decades, dwindling portfolios, weak training, and organizational factors.

 This talk illustrates several technical and behavioral biases in exploration using examples from the Middle East.

On the technical side, the inheritance bias assumes reactivation of large geologic structures, such as basement terrane boundaries and faults. The analogue bias assumes that the geology of one area is similar to another, such as the assumed similarity between the Red Sea basin and the Gulf of Suez. Lastly, the desktop computing environment may cause distorted perceptions of rock structures, properties, and fluid flow. On the behavioral side, the conformance bias leads to Groupthink and the slow acceptance of new concepts. The optimism bias causes overestimation of undiscovered resources or underestimation of exploration risks. The distrust bias impedes sharing of exploration data and concepts. The business-as-usual bias retards progress. 

Awareness of these biases is needed for the energy transition towards cleaner fuels and sequestration of gigatons of carbon in the subsurface. Furthermore, lessons learned by the oil industry are needed to revive mineral exploration in the Middle East.

Biography

Abdulkader M. Afifi is a professor of geology at KAUST since 2018 and leads the Arabian Plate Geology research group. He started his career in 1980 with the USGS Mission in Saudi Arabia in geological mapping and mineral exploration. He worked from 1991 until 2017 in Aramco’s Exploration Organization where he held various technical and management positions. 

Abdulkader holds a PhD in geology from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, a Masters from Colorado School of Mines, and a Bachelors from KFUPM.  He also completed the General Management Program at Harvard Business School. He served for two decades as an associate editor of GeoArabia. He served AAPG as a distinguished lecturer, councilor, president of the Middle East region, and received AAPG’s distinguished service (2016) and Technical Contribution Award (2024). He served on the organizing committees of GEO and ICE conferences and on various other committees. 

Professor Afifi’s professional goals are to contribute significantly to earth science, find energy and mineral resources, protect society and the environment, and educate new generations of geoscientists.