Apr 2023
Host Prof. Georgiy Stenchikov
A tipping element for the Earth's climate system may be the melting of the summer Arctic sea ice pack, occurring at a steep rate that has far outpaced the projections of large-scale climate models. As permafrost thaws, some portion of its organic matter will be decomposed by microorganisms, emitting considerable amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. While this is another potential tipping point in the climate system and one of the most likely to occur, model estimates do not agree in magnitude or sign. These critical phenomena are increasingly interesting as the climate system warms and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this talk, I will give examples of how nonlinear and stochastic theories are powerful tools that can be used to address such questions. Ultimately this work will advance the representation of tipping elements in climate models, which will provide better predictions of the fate of Earth systems and the response of ecosystems .
Dr. Ivan Sudakow is a lecturer in applied mathematics at the School of Mathematics & Statistics at the Open University, UK. He is a Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics Scholar. Previously he held a position of an assistant professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Dayton. Dr. Sudakow has a Master's Degree in Physics and a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics. His research was funded by the US National Science Foundation, the Research Council of Norway, the Russian Science Foundation, the Kern Entrepreneurial Engineering Network, etc. The German Federal Government awarded him the title "Green Talent" in 2013 for "his outstanding research of sea ice and his strong commitment to interdisciplinary interaction between mathematics and climate science." He specializes in data analysis and mathematical modeling for physical and living systems.
